Projection in snowfall characteristics over the European Alps and its sensitivity to the SST changes: results from a 50 km resolution AGCM

The end-of-century projection of the snowfall characteristics over the Alps region is studied using the 50-km resolution atmospheric global climate model, HiRAM (high-resolution atmospheric model). The model is forced by three different patterns of projections in the sea surface temperature (SST) in order to assess the sensitivity of snowfall characteristics to theses patterns. It is found that the mean snowfall intensity and frequency is poorly affected by the differences in SST forcing. However, the projections of heavy snowfall events strongly depend on the SST scenario. The changes in temperature and frequency of precipitation and freezing days over the Alps were investigated. We found that these variables did not exhibit a clear dependence to the SST scenario and could not explain the differences observed in snowfall projections. Changes in the moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean to Europe were found significantly different between each scenario and are assumed to be the main factor affecting the projections of snowfalls, by providing more or less moisture supply

Obstacles and benefits of the implementation of a reduced-rank smoother with a high resolution model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Most of oceanographic operational centers use three-dimensional data assimilation schemes to produce reanalyses. We investigate here the benefits of a smoother, i.e. a four-dimensional formulation of statistical assimilation. A square-root sequential smoother is implemented with a tropical Atlantic Ocean circulation model. A simple twin experiment is performed to investigate its benefits, compared to its corresponding filter. Despite model's non-linearities and the various approximations used for its implementation, the smoother leads to a better estimation of the ocean state, both on statistical (i.e. mean error level) and dynamical points of view, as expected from linear theory. Smoothed states are more in phase with the dynamics of the reference state, an aspect that is nicely illustrated with the chaotic dynamics of the North Brazil Current rings. We also show that the smoother efficiency is strongly related to the filter configuration. One of the main obstacles to implement the smoother is then to accurately estimate the error covariances of the filter. Considering this, benefits of the smoother are also investigated with a configuration close to situations that can be managed by operational center systems, where covariances matrices are fixed (optimal interpolation). We define here a simplified smoother scheme, called half-fixed basis smoother, that could be implemented with current reanalysis schemes. Its main assumption is to neglect the propagation of the error covariances matrix, what leads to strongly reduce the cost of assimilation. Results illustrate the ability of this smoother to provide a solution more consistent with the dynamics, compared to the filter. The smoother is also able to produce analyses independently of the observation frequency, so the smoothed solution appears more continuous in time, especially in case of a low frenquency observation network

Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in midwinter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in eastern China by about two‐thirds

Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: No new data were created or analysed in this study.Extreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global risk of extreme heat with humidity on health, we calculate indicators of heat stress that have been commonly used: The Heat Index, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Wet-Bulb Temperature, from the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections. We analyse how and where different levels of heat stress hazards will change, from severe to deadly, and how results are sensitive to the choice of the index used. We evaluate this risk at country-level and use population and GDP | PPP growth scenario to estimate the vulnerability of each nation. Consistent with previous studies, we find that South and East Asia, and the Middle-East, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards, and that this exposure increases by 20%-60% with global mean temperature change from 1.5 to 3 âC. However, we also find substantial increases in heat health risk for some vulnerable countries with less adaptive capacity, such as West Africa, and Central and South America. For these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population could be exposed to severe heat stress each year on average, independent of the index used. For global warming of 3â, European countries and the USA will also be exposed several times per year to conditions with daily mean heat stress level equal to the maximum heat stress of the 2003 heat wave.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Resolving the backbone tilt of crystalline poly(3-hexylthiophene) with resonant tender X-ray diffraction

The way in which conjugated polymers pack in the solid state strongly affects the performance of polymer-based optoelectronic devices. However, even for the most crystalline conjugated polymers the precise packing of chains within the unit cell is not well established. Here we show that by performing resonant X-ray diffraction experiments at the sulfur K-edge we are able to resolve the tilting of the planar backbones of crystalline poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) within the unit cell. This approach exploits the anisotropic nature of the X-ray optical properties of conjugated polymers, enabling us to discern between different proposed crystal structures. By comparing our data with simulations based on different orientations, a tilting of the planar conjugated backbone with respect to the side chain stacking direction of 30 ± 5° is determined